Operator's Manual

A trade line, left to right

The trade. Five shapes, since the Bernoulli generation (the fifth from 2.5). ▲ MRK long is a fresh strength run: Alpha crossed 60 and is higher than five sessions ago, confirmed on two closes, in a name whose longer trend agrees with it, by the engine's own read: a run that starts against its trend tested worse and is not listed. ▼ NKE short is the mirror: a fresh weakness run in a name whose longer trend is against it, always shown with its hedge. ▲ NVDA / ▼ NOW is a cycle pair: a fresh riser (Alpha 60–80 and climbing, new that day) against a stale leader (85 or more and no longer rising) in the same sector, the hand-off inside a sector, timing rather than distance. ▲ CIEN bounce is the dislocation bounce: one of the weakest tenth of its sector over five sessions, held against the sector fund, five sessions at most. ▲ XLV / ▼ XLY is a sector pair, offered in a dislocation only: a sector fund in its own Trending tape against a sector fund in its own Grind or Dislocation, dollar for dollar, out when either sector's tape leaves its state or on day 21. Day 3 counts sessions since the desk posted the trade, the close the rule triggered on, the trade's own entry, the one the tested number is for; new means it was posted at the last close. Your entry is when you press + Track: the tracker grades you from that day, the run chart marks it in amber, and the run clock's marker moves to your day. A trade posted a week ago is a different trade from the one that was tested; the clock shows how much of the typical run is already gone. The Hedge Ideas board on the Market tab is a different thing: ideas from the ranking, never desk trades, why, in the Hedge pairs chapter.

The hedge. None means the line is the plain name. Weak names are only ever offered against their own sector fund, dollar for dollar, shorted on their own, or against the index, they tested worse. The bounce is held against its sector fund the same way. Cycle pairs show their sizing, $1 long : $x short, both legs at equal daily risk.

Tested. One number per shape, printed once on the group header: the average outcome of this shape, in the current tape, at the exit beside it, replayed walk-forward since 2019. Next to it, how often it finished up, how long it was held, and the worst one-in-twenty. It is an average of many trades, not a forecast for this one, the hit rate reads low because the exit cuts losers in about a week and lets winners run. Every name in the group shares it; what differs between the rows is the name.

Since posted. What the trade has done since the desk posted it, close to close, the plain name for a long, the spread for a hedged short, a pair or a bounce, with the day count beside it. New means it was posted at the last close. This is the desk's mark, not yours: a tracking is graded from the day you pressed + Track.

Alpha now · this trade in this name. The score today, and the name's performance in this shape, strength run or weakness run, every time it came up since 2019, how many times, how many finished up, and the average at the exit. A name with a poor record on a shape that tests well is worth a pause: the shape's number is an average over thousands of runs, this is the sample that is actually yours. Inside the row: best, worst and profit factor. Names new to the desk show their latest runs only until they have a record.

The exit. The rule the number was tested with. Runs: Alpha closes back through 60 (40 for shorts), or day 21. Cycle pairs: either leg's Alpha closes under 60, or day 21, the hand-off is over when either name loses its run. The bounce: its five-day move against the sector is back to zero, or day 5. Take it when it fires; the number assumes you do. On the chart, a tracked trade shows where its exit first fired as a red dashed line with a chip, on the main plot for a run, in the spread lane for a pair, so you can see how long it has been open past the rule. The lane's chevrons are different: they bracket days 10–21, where the pair's payoff tested best, not when to leave.

Size. Every Bernoulli line is the same size, one unit of daily risk per slot, so the row carries no size tier. Open the row: Size it shows your line at your Account settings ($500 on the default $10,000 × 5%) and the whole shares it buys for each leg at the last price, with the price beside it; <1 means the name costs more than your whole line, raise the setting, type a different amount, or skip it.

Tested: shapes are listed only where the trades the desk takes (the top-ranked ones, after costs) test positive in the current tape, and where the whole book tests no worse with them than without. The number on the group header is that one; the engine page shows beside it the average of every trade that qualifies, which can differ (hedged shorts in a trending tape: slightly negative on average, positive as taken). Trending and Flat: strength runs and hedged weakness runs. Grind: runs and cycle pairs. Dislocation: cycle pairs and the bounce; runs are not offered there. Three more rules sit on top: a run is listed only in a sector whose runs tested positive over the whole window (Energy and Staples runs are not listed; open the name and hedge it by hand if you want the relative view); a run is not listed from a sector that is in a dislocation of its own while the market is not (the sector fund read by the same four-state tape as the index; a run inside a sector that is breaking tested worst of all), and the line under the list names any such sector; and a name is in one trade at a time. The full table, the sector table and the red cells are on the engine page. Type any name under the list and the engine walks its rules for it. Every stock in the TradeMath Universe also has a page of its own with today's read, its record on each shape since 2019, its last runs, the house book's trades in it and its true peers.

Open a row: what each block means

Click any trade and it opens into two columns. The picture below is the panel with every block numbered; the list under it says what each one tells you and what it does not.

1. The run. The name's Alpha over the last thirty sessions, in the shape's colour (green for a long, red for a short), dim before the desk posted the trade and bright since; the dot marks the post, the white dot is today, the dashed line is the exit level. On a hedged short the hedge leg's Alpha runs beside it, dotted blue. If you track it, an amber marker shows your own day.
2. The run clock. Of all runs like this one in the replay, how many were still above the line by day 5, 8, 15 and 21. The marker is where this trade is on that clock. It says how long runs tend to last, not how much they make.
3. This trade so far. Where the trade stands since the desk posted it, close to close, on a ribbon from the name's own worst to its own best outcome on this shape. Hedged shapes show the spread. If you track it from a different day, your own mark sits on the same ribbon in amber, so you can see how your entry compares with the desk's; if you entered the day the desk did, the two are one and only the desk's shows. The green chip on the row opens your tracking.
4. Outcome at the exit. The tested number behind the line: every run of this shape in this tape since 2019, graded at the shipped exit. Red is the share that lost, green the share that won, the tick is the mean. Average win, average loss and profit factor beside it. Before costs.
5. This name's performance. The same shape, this name only, every time it came up: how many times, how many finished up, the average, best, worst and profit factor. A name with a poor record on a shape that tests well is worth a pause, this is the sample that is actually yours.
6. The strip. The next earnings date if it falls inside the holding window, the name's typical daily move, and which of its true peers are running too.
7. Exit. The rule the number was tested with, how far the trade is from it today, and the day-21 cap. Take it when it fires; the number assumes you do.
8. Size it. Your line at your Account settings and the whole shares it buys for each leg at the last price. Type any other amount to re-size. <1 means the name costs more than the line.
9. Why it qualified. The rules it passed, in plain words, with the values that passed them. Open "the work" to go to the name's full ticket.
10. True peers. The names that move with this one, found by how they trade together, not by sector label, and their Alpha now. A run with its peers running beside it is a sector move; one running alone is the name's own.

Track it, and the two books

+ Track freezes the trade at today's read and hands it to the tracker, which grades it by its own exit: Working, Watch (within five points of the line, or a deadline), Exit (the rule fired), and Done once you close it with the result frozen. Every tracking remembers the generation that posted it and is graded by that generation's rules for as long as it is open, a trade tracked under Archimedes keeps Archimedes’ exits after Bernoulli takes over; nothing is re-graded when the engine changes. The house book does the same with its own positions. A board pair, a custom pair or a plain outlook has no posting generation, so it takes the one that was live the day you tracked it, since its reads came from that engine. The tracker names the generation on each row only while your trackings span more than one; when everything is from the current engine, the chips stay out of the way.

Your book has two views. Now is the book as it stands this moment: every open tracking marked from its own entry plus every closed one at its frozen result, equal dollars in each. Because every trade is an equal slice, your book's number is the average trade, never the sum: beside it the share of trades ahead, the profit factor, the average open trade, and the best and worst open trades. The house book's first cell is different in kind and says so: the book, marked daily is what a twenty-slot account running the rules has made, like a broker statement; its other cells are per-trade averages like yours. Closing a loser moves it from the open average to the realised one; the book number does not flatter you for it. Closed is the realised record alone, P&L, hit rate, profit factor, and, after 30 closed, Sharpe and Sortino, which is the one to compare with the house. Under it sits you vs the house, your discretion measured three ways against the house: same trades is your result minus the house's on the trades you both took (same entry day, so the difference is your exit timing); skipped is the list trades the house closed since you started that you never tracked, and what they did; your own is the closed trackings that were not on the list. Every open row leads with the same P&L cell whatever its shape: the result since the day you tracked it, close to close, and what that is in dollars on one line at your account settings; hover it for the basis (the spread per $1 long for a pair, the basket for a hedged name, the plain name for a long). Each tracked row also carries a small sparkline of its path since entry, one mark per close, so you see how a trade got where it is rather than only where it stands. The house book is the desk's own record: every qualified trade, taken at the close by the rules, sized by the rules, exited by the rules, after average trading costs, marked daily. It reads the same way as yours, a now view (the book marked today, open and closed together) and a closed view (the realised record; hit rate and profit factor appear after ten closed, because the first trades to close are the quick losers by construction, and the ratios after thirty). Under it, you vs the house: the house's result on the trades you also took, what it took without you, and today's mark. Both books end with an equity line that follows the tab. The house's line opens on the current generation's stretch: the whole book from the day its rules took over, rebased there, with the book cell above it following suit. The generation boundary is one the engine sets, not one chosen after seeing the numbers; full record beside the label shows the line from the day the house book opened, and the engine page carries the same stretch for every generation as a table. The line follows the tab: on now, the last sixty sessions open and closed marked daily, the way a broker statement draws it, today's point being the now number; on closed, the banked line: only closed results, stepping on each close date, with nothing open in it. Behind it, dashed and grey, is the S&P 500 over the same sessions (SPY, bought and held), rebased where your line starts. The label names that start (your first tracking for your book, launch day for the house, the first close on the closed view), with both end values beside the strip, because the only fair question about any book is what it did against simply holding the market over the same days. If the house runs ahead of you, you are overriding the rules in a way that costs; if you run ahead of it, your selection within the list is adding something. During the session the equity line of each book (yours and the house's) ends in a dotted segment and a hollow dot: today so far, at the last price, with the time beside the label and the S&P 500 drawn to the same moment. After the bell it reads at the close · settling; once the close is settled it becomes an ordinary point. The dotted point is never part of a record, and it is not drawn when live prices are late.

Three sessions behind

One thing on the desk is paid for: today's list. Pro reads the trades the moment they post at the close. A free account reads the same list three sessions behind, marked to now: the header says which close it is from, and a trade the rule has already closed says so on its row, with the result. Without an account you see the same delayed ten; a free account adds the rest of the list, every name's ticket, alerts and your page. Nothing else is delayed. Alpha on every name, the exit on every trade, the tracker, your page, the alerts, the record and this manual are live and the same for everyone, so a free reader holding a delayed trade still gets its exit the day it fires. The Daily Pulse keeps the same rule: its list for the last three sessions is locked, and opens as each day ages past the window. The pricing page has the numbers.