Long XLY, short EXPE, name against a sector: $1 of XLY against $0.41 of EXPE, sized so that a typical day moves each leg by about the same amount. The spread is -6.9% over the last 120 sessions, +10.9% over the last 20, and today's level sits at the 84th percentile of its own path, stretched, widening over the last ten sessions. Alpha 78 against 15, a gap of +63 points (+24 ten sessions ago). Net market exposure at this sizing: +0.54, it leans long the market.
Not on the desk's list as of Nov 10, three sessions behind. Pro sees today's list.
The last 10 times these two sat this far above their one-year average, 3 closed half the gap within ten sessions: a spread that has tended to keep going.
One line of your account split $1 : $0.41 across the legs at the last close (XLY $120.46, EXPE $262.15); fractions included. Arithmetic on a setting you choose, not a recommendation.
| entered | held | result | exit | gen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 10d | -2.2% | Alpha over 40 | Archimedes |
The house takes every listed cycle pair by the rules, after average trading costs; its full record is on the engine page. Pairs you assemble yourself are ideas, not posted trades: the Hedge pairs chapter says how the two differ.
Each leg against its sector fund, and each leg's true peers.
How to read it: the spread is what $1 long XLY and $0.41 short EXPE would have made together, in percent of the long leg, close to close, before costs; the market's move cancels in it to the extent the two legs share it. Stretch is where today's level sits among the last 120 sessions of that path, a description of the spread's own history and not a forecast. Net β is the pair's remaining market exposure per $1 long at this sizing (each leg's beta over 250 sessions). The pages for XLY and EXPE carry each leg on its own.