The Workshop · The Trade Desk · one trade at a time · 1 of 11
One evening the desk posted a name. Twenty-one sessions later a rule closed it. Everything the desk does is in that one line.
On the evening of Sep 23, 2026 the desk's list had a line for Shopify (SHOP). Nobody wrote it; the rules did. If you had opened the Today tab that night, this is what the row said. Walk it, left to right.
The first thing to know about the +0.7% beside the line: it is not a forecast for SHOP. It is the average outcome, at the rule's exit, of every trade of this shape (a fresh strength run, held long) in this kind of market (Trending) since 2019: 5,799 of them. Only 42% finished up, and the number is still positive, because the average winner (+6.1%) is about twice the average loser (-3.2%). That is the whole premise in one cell: a shape with a positive average, taken every time it appears, with the exit already written.
Key insight. The desk never says "SHOP will go up". It says: trades shaped like this, in markets like this, have averaged +0.7% at the exit, and here is one. The name is the occasion; the shape is the bet.
The rule that closes a strength run was decided before the trade existed: Alpha closes under 60, or day 21. SHOP ran the full clock. Only about 13% of runs in a Trending tape are still alive at day 21; this one was closed by the day cap on Oct 22, 2026 at +16.9%, after costs.
Drag across the chart: each session is a close, and the number beside the day is the trade as the desk marked it, close to close, no intraday guessing. Day 0 is the close it was posted at.
The list is the Today tab. Free accounts read it three sessions behind, marked to now; Pro reads it the moment it posts. Open any row and you get what the next two lessons teach: the name's own chart and how much of its move was its own. The manual's chapter on the list is one click away: the list, cell by cell.
Keep this: a line is a shape with a history, a name as the occasion, an exit already decided, and a number that is an average, not a promise.
SHOP was posted under the Archimedes rules and kept their exits; the run rules on today's list are the same for this shape. Analytical tools and historical measurements for educational and informational purposes only; not investment advice or a recommendation. Replayed figures are hypothetical: today's rules applied to past prices, after modelled costs, and no account was traded on them. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations and do not represent actual trading. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future outcomes. Trading stocks involves substantial risk of loss.
The Workshop is education, not advice. Replayed numbers are averages over many trades, after average trading costs (2 bps a side on a stock, 1 on a fund, included for fairness; yours vary by broker and liquidity) unless stated, and are not forecasts; the live record is on the engine page. Analytical tools and historical measurements for educational and informational purposes only; not investment advice or a recommendation. Replayed figures are hypothetical: today's rules applied to past prices, after modelled costs, and no account was traded on them. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations and do not represent actual trading. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future outcomes. Trading stocks involves substantial risk of loss. About · Support · Terms · Privacy · Refunds Open the deskManualThe EngineChangelog