The Workshop · The Trade Desk · one trade at a time · 2 of 11
One number, 0 to 100, says where a stock stands against the market. Scrub through three months and watch it move before the price did.
Every name on the desk carries one number, Alpha, from 0 to 100. It is not a price target and not a probability of anything; it is where the name stands against the market right now, with the market's own move taken out. 50 is neutral: moving with the tide, no more. Above 60 the name is being bought harder than the market explains; below 40, sold harder. Scrub SHOP's three months and watch the number against the price.
Most of what a stock does on a given day is what the market did. Alpha starts by subtracting that. What is left, the part of the move that is the stock's own, is scored against the name's own history and the rest of the universe, and comes out between 0 and 100. A name at 50 is doing exactly what its market explains. SHOP crossed 60 on Sep 22, 2026; that crossing, confirmed on a second close, is what the desk calls a run. On the evening it was posted the number read 65.
Key insight. Price tells you what happened. Alpha tells you who was being bought or sold harder than the market explains, how fresh that is, and how far it has run. The first is the headline; the second is the trade.
A run has an age. SHOP's was 1 session old when the desk posted it: fresh, which is the only kind the rules take. The replay since 2019 is clear about why: runs taken in their first two closes above 60 tested well; runs chased after they had already stretched tested worse than no rule at all. The ticket says this in words, Extended or Very Extended, beside the number.
Drag to the exit. On Oct 22, 2026 Alpha read 83, still above the line, which is why the day cap closed it rather than the Alpha rule. Either way the decision needed no opinion that evening; the rule read the number.
Click any name and the ticket shows this number large, with its own daily range beside it, the state words (Bullish, Neutral, Bearish; Fresh, Extended), and the same chart you just scrubbed, live. The manual's chapter: Alpha, the number.
Keep this: Alpha is where the name stands against the market, 0 to 100. A run is Alpha moving through 60 and staying there; fresh is the only kind worth taking.
Analytical tools and historical measurements for educational and informational purposes only; not investment advice or a recommendation. Replayed figures are hypothetical: today's rules applied to past prices, after modelled costs, and no account was traded on them. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations and do not represent actual trading. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future outcomes. Trading stocks involves substantial risk of loss.
The Workshop is education, not advice. Replayed numbers are averages over many trades, after average trading costs (2 bps a side on a stock, 1 on a fund, included for fairness; yours vary by broker and liquidity) unless stated, and are not forecasts; the live record is on the engine page. Analytical tools and historical measurements for educational and informational purposes only; not investment advice or a recommendation. Replayed figures are hypothetical: today's rules applied to past prices, after modelled costs, and no account was traded on them. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations and do not represent actual trading. Past performance, including backtested results, does not guarantee future outcomes. Trading stocks involves substantial risk of loss. About · Support · Terms · Privacy · Refunds Open the deskManualThe EngineChangelog